Australia Mortgage Stress Data 2026: Latest Figures and What They Mean

Australia’s mortgage stress numbers depend entirely on who is counting. Roy Morgan estimates that 31.8% of people with owner-occupied home loans, about 1.75 million, were at risk of mortgage stress in the three months to September 2026. Digital Finance Analytics counts 450,539 stressed households in the 77 postcodes it tracks. The RBA, by contrast, says only around 2% of variable-rate owner-occupiers have a cash flow shortfall, and official arrears are close to pre-pandemic levels. All of these can be true at once, because they measure different things. This guide puts the latest government, regulator, bank and survey data side by side, explains what is driving the pressure, and sets out what to do if your repayments are getting hard to manage.

Everything below was checked against the RBA, APRA, the ABS, Roy Morgan, AFCA, bank results and news reports on 30 October 2026. Where sources disagree or a figure is a chart reading, we say so. This is general information, not financial advice.

TL;DR: Mortgage Stress in Australia, October 2026

• Survey measures are high. Roy Morgan has 31.8% of mortgage holders at risk (down from 32.3% in August, up 7.9 points since January) and 23%, a record, extremely at risk. DFA reports 450,539 stressed households in its tracked postcodes, up about 21% in a year.
• Official measures are calm. The RBA’s October Financial Stability Review puts the cash flow shortfall at around 2% of variable-rate owner-occupiers, with negative equity under 1%. APRA shows non-performing home loans at 1.01% in June 2026, slightly lower than a year earlier.
• The pressure is building at the edges. CBA’s 90+ day arrears rose from 0.63% in December to 0.73% in June, AFCA home loan complaints rose 21% in 2025-26, and S&P expects arrears to rise across states.
• The drivers are rates, prices and jobs. The cash rate is 4.60% after four 0.25 point rises in 2026, inflation hit 4.3% in September, unemployment is 4.7%, and national dwelling values have fallen six months in a row.
• More is possible. Markets priced about an 85% chance of another rise at the RBA’s 3 November meeting. Roy Morgan models that a November rise would lift the at-risk share to 33.1%.
• If you are struggling, act early. Ask your lender for hardship help in writing and call the free MoneyHelp line on 1800 007 007. Our calculator below shows what further rises could do to your repayments.

Why the Mortgage Stress Numbers Do Not Match

There is no single official mortgage stress figure. Each source uses its own definition, population and data, so the results can differ by an order of magnitude.

In simple terms: survey measures capture households that are squeezed but still paying, while official data captures households that have missed payments or cannot cover essentials. A household can be stretched for a long time before it ever shows up in arrears, which is why analysts watch both.

What the RBA Says: Resilient, With a Warning

The RBA’s Financial Stability Review, published on 1 October 2026, is the most authoritative official read on household finances. Its key points on mortgage holders:

• Cash flow shortfall: around 2% of variable-rate owner-occupiers, after a small rise in the first half of 2026. The RBA’s August forecast had it staying a little under 2% for some time, below the 2023 to 2024 peak.
• Savings buffers: most borrowers in shortfall have savings to cover it for at least six months if they cut spending to essentials. The median borrower’s offset and redraw balances could cover over a year of scheduled repayments.
• Arrears: housing loans more than three months behind rose slightly this year but remain around pre-pandemic levels. Hardship arrangements have increased but remain low.
• Negative equity: under 1% of borrowers today. The RBA estimates that a 20% fall in prices from here would put around 5% of mortgages into negative equity.
• Lending standards: APRA’s serviceability buffer requires lenders to test new loans at 3 percentage points above the loan rate, and high debt-to-income lending is well below APRA’s 20% limit.
• Riskier pockets: recent buyers, high loan-to-value borrowers and 5% Deposit Scheme participants are more likely to end up in negative equity, though the RBA says their share of borrowers is very small and arrears remain contained.
• Investors: investors have historically had lower arrears than owner-occupiers, but in falling markets they may be more inclined to sell, which can amplify price falls. The shortfall measure covers owner-occupiers only.

The RBA's very adverse scenario

The RBA tested a severe downturn with unemployment rising to 6.3% (from 4.6%), inflation at 7%, the cash rate rising a further point to 5.6%, GDP falling 1.4% and prices dropping 20%. Even then, about 5% of mortgagors would be at higher risk of default, only a little above the 2023 peak, and about two-thirds of them would still have buffers of at least six months. Households with a shortfall, low savings and negative equity at the same time would be under 1%.

Roy Morgan: 1.75 Million People at Risk

Roy Morgan’s monthly series is the most widely quoted measure. Its September 2026 result shows:

• At risk: 31.8% of owner-occupier mortgage holders, down 0.5 points from August (32.3%) but up 7.9 points since January. That is about 1.75 million people, up 566,000 this year.
• Extremely at risk: 23%, or about 1.26 million people, a record high compared with a long-term average of 16.5%.
• The record: the at-risk share peaked at 35.6% in mid-2008, when the cash rate was above 7%.
• Why it eased slightly in September: Roy Morgan says rising household incomes among mortgage holders were the key driver of the moderation.

Roy Morgan has also said unemployment is the factor with the biggest effect on household income and therefore on mortgage stress, ahead of interest rates. This fits with CBA’s chief financial officer, who said a weaker job market matters more to the bank than house price falls.

Digital Finance Analytics: Victoria Leads, Tasmania Surges

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA), whose data powers the OurTop10 Mortgage Stress Report, counted 450,539 stressed households across 77 tracked postcodes in the September 2026 quarter. That is 31,318 more than the previous quarter (about 7.5%), the third straight quarterly rise since the index launched, and 61 of the 77 postcodes worsened.

• Victoria: the top 10 Victorian postcodes added 10,501 stressed households (up 11.2%) to reach 104,325, the highest of any market. Derrimut and Tarneit led the rise.
• Tasmania: the steepest market-wide rise at 13.7%, and no ranked postcode improved.
• Biggest postcode jump: Manunda in Cairns rose 156% in three months.
• Severe stress: households that have fallen behind, are trying to refinance, have sought hardship help or are selling. Drummoyne in Sydney’s inner west rose from 224 to 1,591, with big increases also in Hornsby and Elwood.
• Who is most exposed: recent first-home buyers with small deposits, including 5% Deposit Scheme users, families in outer-suburban estates, and heavily leveraged households in wealthier areas.

DFA principal Martin North said he expects stress to go higher still and spread, and described the market as being at a tipping point. That is a forecast from one analyst, not an official projection.

Arrears, Banks and Hardship: What the Hard Data Shows

APRA: arrears are still low

APRA’s June 2026 quarter statistics show non-performing housing loans at 1.01% of loans (1.04% a year earlier) and loans 30 to 89 days past due at 0.54% (0.66% a year earlier). Total residential credit was $2.56 trillion, up 7.0%. New lending funded was $200.5 billion, up 6.8%. Investor loans were 31.2% of outstanding credit and 35.6% of new lending, and about 5.6% of new loans had a debt-to-income ratio of six times or more. These are all pre-September 2026 numbers, so they do not yet reflect the latest rate rise.

The big banks: a slow upward drift

• CBA: mortgages more than 90 days behind rose from 0.63% in December to 0.73% in June, still only slightly above pre-pandemic levels. CBA arranged 147,000 payment plans for struggling customers during the year, about 85% of its home loan customers were ahead on repayments, and its loan loss provisions rose to $6.5 billion. Its home loan applications fell 15% since May, and Westpac reported applications down 20% since the Budget.
• S&P Global Ratings: prime mortgages 30+ days behind were 0.85% in June 2026, with Victoria highest at 1.00%, then the ACT (0.98%), NSW (0.91%) and Queensland (0.55%). Non-conforming loans were at 3.42%. S&P, in a report published in August, expected arrears to rise across all states, with NSW and Victoria seeing the sharpest increases.

AFCA complaints: the pressure is showing up in disputes

The Australian Financial Complaints Authority received 119,949 complaints in 2025-26, up 19%. Home loan complaints rose 21% to 7,014, and financial difficulty (hardship) complaints rose 17% to 5,566, including 1,676 about home loans. The most common hardship complaint, in 3,076 cases, was a firm failing to respond to a request. If your lender is slow to answer, AFCA is a free route to escalate.

What Is Driving the Pressure

Rising prices matter in two ways. They increase living costs, and they keep the RBA from cutting rates. Falling house prices matter less for repayments, but they reduce equity buffers and make it harder to refinance or sell if you get into trouble. We cover the tax side of the property market in our guide to property vs shares after the 2026 tax reform, and the outlook for rates in our interest rate predictions guide. Our cost of living price guide gives a sense of where everyday costs sit.

Who Is Most Exposed

• Recent buyers with small deposits. DFA and the RBA both point to 5% Deposit Scheme users and high loan-to-value borrowers, who have the least equity cushion.
• Variable-rate borrowers. The RBA’s shortfall measure covers variable-rate owner-occupiers, who feel each rate rise straight away.
• Households whose income is at risk. Roy Morgan and CBA both say job market weakness is the biggest risk to loan performance.
• Outer-suburban families and Melbourne. DFA’s data shows Victoria with the highest stress and S&P shows Victoria with the highest prime arrears.
• Renters. HILDA data cited by the RBA (to 2022) found about 15% of renters had a cash flow deficit compared with about 4% of mortgage holders, and renters make up 40% of the lowest income quarter.
• Investors. They tend to have lower arrears, but the RBA notes they may sell in falling markets to limit losses, which can add to price falls.

Mortgage Stress Check: What Further Rate Rises Could Do

Enter your own loan details to see what extra rises could do to your repayments, what share of your after-tax income they would take, and how many months your savings or offset balance would cover.

As an illustration, here is what a $600,000 loan with 30 years left costs at different rates (principal and interest). Each quarter-point rise adds roughly $95 to $100 a month at these levels. A HELP debt can also reduce how much a lender will let you borrow, so see our HECS-HELP repayment calculator if that applies to you.

If You Are Struggling With Repayments: What to Do

1. Act before you miss a payment. Lenders have more options for you if you ask early. ASIC’s advice is to contact your lender as soon as possible and request assistance.
2. Ask for the hardship team and put it in writing. Under the National Credit Code, if you tell your lender you cannot meet your repayments, it must consider varying your contract. Consumer Action says that, at the very least, your lender should respond within 21 days with a decision or a request for more information, and recommends asking for any arrangement in writing.
3. Know the possible options. ASIC lists payment deferrals, reduced payments, interest-only periods, term extensions, capitalising arrears and rate reductions. A short-term fix may not suit you, so explain why if the offer does not fit your budget.
4. Be careful with temporary relief. ASIC found that about 40% of customers given payment reductions or deferrals fell into arrears soon after the assistance ended, so ask what happens when the arrangement finishes.
5. Get free help. MoneyHelp and the National Debt Helpline on 1800 007 007 provide free, confidential financial counselling, available on weekdays from 9:30am to 4:30pm.
6. Escalate if needed. If your lender does not respond, rejects you or offers something that does not work, you can complain to AFCA for free.
7. Check your own buffers. Know your offset, redraw and savings balances and review non-essential spending. Our 50-30-20 budget guide and money-saving tips can help with a short-term squeeze.

A note on refinancing: switching lenders can cut your rate, but new lenders still apply APRA’s 3 point serviceability buffer, which can be hard to meet if your income has fallen. Talk to a broker or your lender about your own position.

What to Watch Next

• RBA, Tuesday 3 November: a fifth rise this year would take the cash rate to 4.85%, the case Roy Morgan has modelled.
• Roy Morgan’s October result, due in the coming weeks, to see whether September’s easing continues.
• DFA’s next quarterly report and its view on whether severe stress keeps spreading.
• APRA’s September quarter statistics, the first official arrears data to include the late September rate rise.
• Unemployment. It was 4.7% in September. A move towards the RBA’s adverse scenario of 6.3% would be the main trigger for a rise in defaults.

Books for Managing Debt and Budgeting

General reading on household budgeting. These are not recommendations of any financial product.

Frequently Asked Questions

Sources

• RBA Financial Stability Review, October 2026: Resilience of Australian households and businesses
• ABC News: RBA relaxed about housing downturn but deeply worried by AI and bonds
• Property Investment Professionals: RBA FSR October 2026 negative equity and mortgage stress data
• APRA: Quarterly ADI property exposure statistics, June 2026 highlights
• Roy Morgan: Mortgage stress risk, September 2026
• Roy Morgan: Mortgage stress risk, August 2026
• Broker News: Mortgage stress hits 450,000 households as Melbourne leads the rise
• Mortgage Professional Australia: Mortgage stress climbs 7.5%
• MacroBusiness: Mortgage stress surges with worse to come
• Mortgage Professional Australia: Home loan complaints rise 21% as total disputes hit record (AFCA)
• The Nightly: Commonwealth Bank profit as mortgage demand falls and arrears increase
• CBA: 2026 full year results announcement
• Mortgage Professional Australia: Australian mortgage arrears edge higher (S&P)
• ABS: CPI rose 4.3% in the year to September 2026
• ABC News: Inflation rate rises to 4.3 per cent in September
• ABS: Unemployment rate at 4.7% in September
• CommBank: RBA cash rate decision, September 2026
• Consumer Action Law Centre: Seeking help when you are experiencing financial hardship
• ASIC: Report on hardship support from home lenders (REP 783)
• National Debt Helpline: free financial counselling